Source: The National Herald [link]
Photo: Αssociated Press, President-elect Joe Biden tears up as he speaks at the Major Joseph R. "Beau" Biden III National Guard/Reserve Center, Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2021, in New Castle, Del. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

By Constantine S. Sirigos, 1/20/2021

ATHENS – “It shocked us all. We never imagined scenes like this being broadcast from the United States.” It was impossible to ignore what happened on Capitol Hill on January 6 when beginning a conversation with Dr. Aristotle Tziampiris about life after the presidency of Donald Trump and prospects for U.S.-Greece relations under President Joe Biden.

Tziampiris first noted that the Athens-Washington relationship “has improved substantially over the past few years. Specific, concrete examples include: In 2018 the countries signed a Strategic Dialogue agreement. In 2019 the U.S. Congress passed the East Med Security and Partnership Act with the active help of HALC and other Community groups and the AJC, and in 2020 a mutual defense cooperation agreement was signed and ratified. And we have had two successful visits to the White House by two consecutive Greek governments.”

Regarding the broader relationship between the two countries he also noted that “a lot is happening on the cultural and educational front which is about the go to a whole different level, and we now have substantial energy cooperation, with a renewed emphasis on the port of Alexandroupolis.”

On the national security front, Tziampiris noted “85 F-16 aircraft are now being upgraded, and Greece is thinking of buying U.S. frigates … Without any doubt, we are now witnessing some, if not the very best Greek-American relations ever – and this is based on concrete acts and developments, not rhetoric.”

He emphasized also that “we have a new U.S. president who has visited Greece in an official capacity more than once and is knowledgeable about Hellenic issues. He has a foreign policy team comprised of seasoned, experienced experts, however, as HALC Executive Director Endy Zemenides raised in a recent article in the Greek press, the world is very different than the last time this group was in office. It remains to be seen how the world views … have changed to reflect new developments, especially in the East Mediterranean… Turkey is now a far more problematic – and some would say even nominal –ally of the U.S.”

After noting that “Biden's primarily focus will be to attend to domestic challenges,” Tziampiris said that Athens must also keep its eyes on the ball. “The U.S. will not, and cannot, have a strictly bilateral relationship with Greece, isolated from other issues, trends and developments,” he said. “Greek-American relations will be seen and decided through the prism of developments in the East Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions, great power competition, regional malfeasance by certain actors, obviously, relations with Turkey, and substantial common economic and energy interests, so Athens had better be prepared to offer sophisticated and multidimensional arguments."

There are also positive developments in the United States. “Given my involvement with HALC” – Tziampiris is its academic advisor – “I've seen some creative plans on the digital communications front on engaging with American thought leaders” and supplementing the engagement of groups like AHI, AHEPA, and Manatos and Manatos with Congress “in their home districts and not just in Washington.”

Turning to “the big question of Turkey, the U.S. Congress actually applied the Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” to Turkey and removed Turkey from the F-35 manufacturing process, “a very important development.”

The Trump administration often displayed tolerance, however, but he expects that “to either stop or be substantially reduced,” adding, “I also expect the Biden administration to be more vigilant and interested across the board when it comes to human rights violations and democracy … and that includes Turkey.”

While he acknowledges that there is “a perennial fear among U.S. officials that one day they might be accused of having `lost' Turkey, it must be borne in mind that Turkey is becoming less western and more nationalistic, less democratic and more erratic, less a reliable ally and more a revisionist state with no qualms about threatening or employing military force.”

Tziampiris predicts “Erdogan will try to have a good relationship with the U.S. and the Biden administration, however, he is somewhat hampered by Russia's overall influence in those areas … In the Caucasus, Putin has awarded Turkey a more prominent role in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute,” for example.

Emphasizing that deeds, not words, will determine the Erdogan-Biden relationship, Tziampiris asks “will Turkey give back or render inoperative the Russian S-400 missile system … will diplomatic practice be pursued with Greece and threats eschewed? Will the quality of democracy and human rights palpably improve?”

Dr. Aristotle Tziampiris, professor of international relations at the University of Piraeus. Studying at Middlebury College in Vermont perfected his American English and solidified his hardcore Yankees, Jets, and Rock music fanatic status.